Breaking Through: A Week at the 2008 Iowa Caucuses

The Democratic National Convention gathering to nominate Kamala Harris is a good moment to recall the last time an unlikely Black politician generated widespread enthusiasm on the national stage.

Over turkey at Thanksgiving in 2008, my oldest son and I realized that the Iowa caucuses were going to be epic. With no incumbents running, both parties were hosting wide open Presidential primaries that attracted odd and colorful candidates. Politicians on both sides were emerging from single digit oblivion to momentary seriousness. Front runners had faltered. The improbable Mike Huckabee was outpolling Mitt Romney. Established pols like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards were being threatened by newcomer Barack Obama.

We decided to see it for ourselves. At 15, Jamie is old enough to care about these things. He made noises at Thanksgiving about wanting to study in China while in high school. I’d bet he’ll do it. Plainly, our time living together was coming to a close.

We bought cheap tickets to Kansas City, rented an SUV, and headed north through ice and snow to Iowa. A few hours later, we joined Barack Obama in a junior high gym in Des Moines. We ended up standing next to Kamala Harris, the San Francisco District Attorney who had recently been elected California Attorney General. I introduced her to Jamie and joked that "she’ll be up there some day”. Harris blushed but made no effort to deny it. Politics is a drug and she is plainly an addict. I only shoot up occasionally.

Iowa caucus political tourism is under-rated. Iowa is so small that you can meet every major candidate up close -- and so damned cold that you won't have a lot of company. We met candidates in a school gym, a church, a library, a frigid airport hanger, a college lecture hall, a swanky country club, a campaign headquarters, and in a supporter's living room.

Jamie grabbed a copy of the US constitution at a Mike Huckabee event and asked every candidate to sign it. He has signatures from Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Chris Dodd. He has spoken to Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea Clinton, Joe Biden, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney. Also Rand Paul, the weird and inscrutable libertarian.

Iowa is cold in December. At a Romney event, I left my hot latte in the car figuring it might offend Mormon sensibilities. It froze solid in 90 minutes (Romney could have cared less. When a woman apologized to him because she had a drink in her hand, he reassured her "it's not illegal for you -- just for me". When he signed Jamie’s constitution he avoided signing the 18th amendment). That night, the thermometer hit 5 degrees at a Bill Clinton event in an unheated airport shed. Medics brought in blankets for sobbing children, but nobody left early.

Iowa is a small state with fewer than 3 million people living in 2,000 towns, 1700 precincts, and 99 counties. It has 60 Walmarts. It holds a caucus not a primary. The caucuses use a form of rank-choice voting. In each precinct, supporters cluster and yell at undecided or opposing voters. After 30 minutes, they count noses and anyone without 15% of total attendees is out. Caucus attendees then re-affiliate with viable candidates. Once only viable candidates remain, the precinct allocates delegates and reports its totals. American presidents emerge from hundreds of these boisterous, full-contact events.

Iowa politics is all retail. Candidates build supporters one at a time. Many do 5-6 events each day and visit all 99 counties. They recruit and motivate staff, build and track supporters, and mobilize them to attend a raucous caucus.

This is of course wildly undemocratic. Homogeneous Iowans should not be in charge of thinning the presidential herd. I would end the practice tomorrow -- and we would in many ways be poorer if I did. The Iowa caucuses force candidates to work in tiny towns and in intimate settings. Candidates discuss issues with the same people over many months. Like the SAT for college admissions, it's an imperfect way to separate the weak from the strong. And like the SAT, it is easier to critique than to replace.

The Iowa Caucuses are often intense, but 2008 is nuts. Four years ago John Kerry had 20 paid staffers in Iowa. At the moment, Clinton and Obama each have more than 400. CNN reports that Clinton has more than 5,000 volunteers to drive her supporters to caucuses. The campaign is cacophonous and unrelenting. Activists swoon; ordinary mortals beg for relief.

It's expensive. Mitt Romney has spent $17 million of his own money here plus that much again from donors. But money is not the main determinant of success because media plays a small role.

And in the end, most campaigns fail. Almost all presidential dreams die in Iowa. Ask Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, or Bill Richardson. They relocated their families, raised millions of dollars, and opened dozens of offices. They spent months campaigning and would each have been a better nominee than John Kerry. Any of them would have beaten George Bush. But thanks to 200,000 Iowans, their campaigns will end tomorrow.

Biden seemed disorganized. His advance was lousy and his event staffing shambolic. The audio didn't work, but it didn't matter since very few people showed up. His staff did not sign people in and even the rock music was tepid. Biden is brevity-challenged, but many of us with Irish DNA have that problem. He made wonderful use of his family, including his 90 year-old mom. His older brother did not hesitate to shout out "thank you, Senator" when the answers went on too long. Biden is a chronic name-dropper, an occupational hazard if you chair Foreign Affairs. He brags that he has the phone number of every world leader -- but it's not clear that he has anything to say to them.

We did not see Richardson -- could not make the maps overlap. Chris Dodd seemed out of his league. His staff were pitiful and even his campaign theme music was lame. (They played Wild Night is Calling by John Mellencamp, the same night Mellencamp headlined for Edwards). Dodd is a great guy, but his candidacy is DOA and it is fine with me if Iowa breaks him the news.

The story of Iowa is Barack Obama, who has a real shot at the Presidency. Obama is Harvard Law smart. He has the evangelist's gift of pulling hope out of a crowd's soul and catalyzing people to action. His style is serious; he is both professor and preacher. He is an orator -- and most politicians are not. That's the exciting part.

He appears well organized. His field team is thorough and his website is informative. His venues are well-chosen and packed. His volunteers are meticulous about getting people to sign commitment cards. These are the currency of the caucuses. Of course signing one means endless spam reminding you to attend your caucus.

Obama's events are well staged. The audio works, the rock music is loud and well chosen. (OK, in a race against Hillary, I would have added Devil with a Blue Dress On to the playlist to see if anyone got the joke. But for some reason, they didn't ask me).

I like Obama. I have written about his tactical mistakes, minor screw ups, and missed opportunities. I am not sure that he is willing or able to lead an intelligent fight against militant Islam. Democrats need to recognize that this is a huge issue, even if George Bush thinks so too. I'd like to hear Obama say "We will fight al Qaeda and their cronies anywhere and in any country. We will fight with our allies or without them. And as President, I will find and kill Osama Bin Laden". He is a national security novice with dovish instincts -- not a perfect fit for the moment.

Hillary Clinton is a much better political leader than I gave her credit for. She knows how things get done in government and strikes me as the best prepared candidate. Her personal biography is impressive, as is the passion of those who know her well. In a race featuring six US senators, ten senators have endorsed Hillary; nobody else has more than two. (Senators rarely endorse in primaries). I remain ambiguous about the Clinton legacy. I am hostile to the notion of the dynastic nature of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. But Hillary is knowledgeable, practical, and trustworthy on national security. She has a practical energy agenda. I'd bet she gets health care right this time, even though her hubris helped destroy her husband's efforts. She would be a much stronger candidate than John Kerry or Al Gore. Pity she is a Clinton (although Bill is doing a phenomenal job campaigning for her in Iowa. It was for him that we braved three hours on a bitter cold airfield).

John Edwards is the macho populist in the race. He gives a very passionate stump speech promising to rip into big corporations. He assures his audience that "you cannot 'nice' these guys into submission". There is truth to this -- but a guy who wants to stand his ground instead of finding common ground will not get much done. For this reason, Obama and Clinton are gonna crush him. Edwards may be a multimillionaire hedge fund advisor, but he made poverty a campaign issue. He is a trial lawyer who loves to fight for the little guy against the big guys. But in his soul, he lives and often thinks like a big guy.

Mitt Romney is a great man and a terrible candidate. He came to the campaign scion of George Romney, a famous CEO and a Republican governor of a blue state. Mitt had turned around Bain & Co., co-founded Bain Capital, and saved the Salt Lake City Olympics -- a stunning story. He has earned the fierce loyalty of his people and repaid it many times. As a Republican, he brought universal health care to Massachusetts! He could run on competence and compassion. In today's Republican Party, that's differentiation enough.

Instead, Romney flipped, trimmed, and pandered. He tacked hard right on social issues to try to win social conservatives. He softened long held positions on abortion, immigration, and gun control. Voters smelled a rat. They knew that this is not who Mitt Romney is and it's not who George Romney was. Evangelicals and social conservatives spotted one of their own in Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is a fool, but as Bill Clinton points out with some pride, he is an Arkansas good ol' boy who can tell a joke and a story.

John McCain spent today doing four events in New Hampshire before coming to Iowa. It is obvious why: Huckabee is doing McCain's job for him here. The evolution-denying, knuckle-dragging Huckabee is siphoning Romney's support, which helps McCain. McCain knows that he is dead in Iowa because he opposes ethanol subsidies. Also he doesn't think shipping home 12 million illegals is a practical idea. So he works New Hampshire, where conservatives are libertarian not theocratic.

We attended Huckabee's New Year's Eve country club party. The Huckster strummed his bass guitar for hair-sprayed ladies and corn-fed gents. Many were muttering that their candidate had lost his marbles. A few hours earlier Huckabee notified the press that he was pulling an ad shot the previous day. The press broke out laughing at him because he showed them the ads. Of course they appeared on YouTube within minutes. (My former union, the Machinists, has endorsed Huckabee. Like him, they are an enchilada short of a combination plate.) Huckabee is a lightweight who can tell a joke, play guitar, and lose 75 pounds but not get nominated. He is going nowhere.

The Republicans should run John McCain, the toughest and greatest person running. He can be honest to a fault: on ethanol, on immigration, and on Iraq. But McCain is surrounding himself with religious ranters. Tonight his rally featured an honorable group of veterans, including some who had been POWs with him in Vietnam. Then he trotted out Sam Brownback, the raving right-to-life senator from Kansas. If McCain comes in third in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, as seems possible tonight, he is in the game for real.

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Wow. The caucus is over. What a night.

Where but America can a politician go from unknown to political powerhouse in a few short years? A race with nearly a dozen candidates is now focused on one of the youngest presidential candidates in US history against one of the oldest. Like a talented running back, Barack Obama has twisted clear of his opposition. He now has a clear path to the White House. He could still fumble or get caught from behind. But he is growing. Every day he seems quicker, more sure of his moves, and less likely to drop the ball.

How did this happen? Three months ago, I wrote that the race was Hillary Clinton's to lose. In Iowa, I saw exactly how she was managing to lose it. And I watched Obama win -- which was as close to a revolution as you get in American politics.

Barack Obama is an experienced organizer, inspired speaker, and successful fundraiser. He is attracting first-rate talent to his campaign. He is rallying young people and first time voters in record numbers. Like all candidates, opponents and events will bloody and bow him. He will make mistakes. But if he takes New Hampshire on Tuesday, he is very likely to become the next President of the United States.

How is this possible? Eight years ago, Obama could not get a floor pass for the Democratic Convention. Four years ago he introduced himself to the party with one of the best convention speeches ever.

Credit his rise to much weaker political parties and a much more open nominating process. Activists rebelled when political bosses shut the antiwar movement out of the 1968 convention. Until 1968, parties seated convention delegates -- mostly local elected officials. They picked the candidate and screened out rebels, outsiders, and weirdos. After 1968, state primaries and caucuses nominated candidates. Both parties came to favor direct over representative democracy.

An obscure southern governor first recognized the importance of early primaries. Jimmy Carter had national name recognition less than two percent. Nobody thought he could win. (When he told his family that he intended to run for President, his mother asked him, "President of what?"). Carter won the Iowa caucus and used the momentum to win the New Hampshire primary. He pioneered the approach used by every modern presidential insurgent.

These reforms neutered our political parties. They gave Iowa and New Hampshire an outsized role in picking presidents. They have also removed the guardrails. As James Madison warned, direct democracy produces demagogues as well as inspired leaders. At the moment, I love it -- but it is easy to see how it might (and doubtless will) backfire.

Better approaches are easy to imagine but hard to put in place. We could have a national primary, but that favors monied candidates. Starting in smaller states lowers costs and makes sense. We could rotate the first primaries among the two of the ten smallest states. We could then stage the remaining primaries with largest states last. But the US constitution makes no mention of political parties. There is no federal authority to govern such matters. It is up to the states – and New Hampshire has passed a law declaring that it will always hold the nation’s first primary.

For better or for worse, Iowa has now thinned the field. Six serious Democrats and five Republicans began the race to lead the free world. Democrats surfaced a strong field: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson. Republicans offered up Rudy Guiliani (who skipped Iowa), Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson.

By midnight on January 3, eleven candidates were down to five – three of whom are in serious trouble. The remaining seven candidacies are either dead or will be soon.

Last night, we decided to observe the caucus at precinct 87 because it was near our hotel. Every caucus is chaotic and presided over by a precinct apparatchik. They are democratic in a 19th century town hall sort of way. Your vote is public, pressure to defect is continuous, and the polling place is a debate site. Anybody can arrive, register, and vote -- which opens the process to all kinds of abuse.

Most attendees had never attended a caucus before. Team Obama was young, fired up, and diverse. Hillary’s was older, more experienced, and dazed at the Obama turnout. There was no obvious tilt by women towards Hillary. Obama polled better among women aged 18-59 than Hillary. (One of his better buttons declares "Hot Chicks Dig Obama"). At our caucus, Hillary and Obama started with a similar number of voters. But Obama was a strong second choice. As Biden, Edwards, Dodd, and Richardson failed to clear the 15% threshold, their supporters moved elsewhere. They overwhelmingly moved to the Obama group amidst loud cheers. Hillary showed both her strong positives and strong negatives. Obama was a popular first choice and a very popular second choice. Voters who backed Hillary attracted very few Biden, Edwards, Dodd, or Richardson supporters.

21st century technology intruded on this 19th century process. By 7:30 pm, the networks were reporting caucus results even though voting was still underway. They did this because unlike primaries or general elections, caucuses have no closing time.

Recruiting Obama supporters became much easier once the networks declared him the winner. Ubiquitous Blackberries and cell phones meant that dozens of people knew immediately. We were able to look at detailed projections while our caucus voting was still underway.

Had everything had worked to plan, each caucus would have convened at 6:30. At 7:00 sharp they would shut their doors and count total attendees as ours did. They would then conduct a 30 minute scrum to allow everybody to champion their candidate. After 30 minutes, they would blow a whistle, run a tally, and drop non-viable candidates. Then another 30 minute scrum and a final tally. A small and well-run caucus might wrap up by 8:00pm. Ours was chaotic because it was 50% larger than any ever held. It ran until after 9:30.

We waited for Obama at a fired up victory bash, swaying to loud rock music. A kid’s drum band marched straight through the mob. We looked up to see a TV screen with Hillary giving her concession speech. We could not hear her words over the din, but the visuals told the tale. A tight-lipped Bill Clinton was a symbol of 1992 and not at all happy. A third place finish tarnished his legacy. We saw Madeleine Albright, a symbol of 1997 and a botched Rwanda policy. We saw AFSCME signs everywhere – a symbol of interest group politics. It did not look like change.

Minutes later I was listening to a pitch-perfect speech. Obama delivered a fine mix of inspiring oratory and programmatic thinking. I was looking at a beautiful family and picturing them in the White House. I felt better about my country than I had felt in a very long time.

I rarely react well to a frisking, but I thanked the two Secret Service agents for the pat down because it let me shake Michelle and Barack's hands and exchange a few words of congratulations. Jamie was all eyes. I realized that I was exactly his age when a Palestinian with a pistol murdered my first political hero. It was at a rally just like this one not far from my house. Bobby Kennedy was celebrating his victory in the California primary.

January 3 was an amazing day to be in Des Moines. A Black guy who not long ago was a complete unknown had crushed Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the Iowa caucuses. He had given a remarkable, memorable victory speech to the nation. In American politics it does not get any better than this. I was enjoying it with my son, who had become conversant and engaged after a series of close-up meetings with Presidential candidates.

Of course, Obama could still blow it. But as of now, he has his opponents in a box and the Clinton and Edwards campaigns both know it. They do not have an answer – and they are not going to find a lot of Democrats who want to stop this guy.

Hillary Clinton is a talented woman who has earned her positives as well as her nontrivial negatives. Will she hold on to win New Hampshire and delivers “comeback kid -- the sequel”? Or will she preside over the collapse of one of the mightiest political legacies in America?

I don’t think she can pull it off -- and as much as I respect her talents, a large part of me doesn’t want her to. The nomination and the election, which so recently was hers to lose, is slipping from her grasp.